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Election Buildup II
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Date written: 2/21/2006
Author: Kyle Luman
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Well, the Uganda presidential election on 23rd Feb appears to be a point of no return for the country. If I were to guess, I would say that the opposition candidate has more support than the incumbent president. But, the president is almost certainly going to rig the elections. There have been rumors and incidents pointing to imminent foul play with the ballots. Will the rigging be enough to turn the elections in his favor? If the vote (with or without rigging) goes in the current president’s favor, will the opposition peacefully accept this result? If he is not elected, will he step aside peacefully or will he take all measures necessary to remain in power? The answers to these questions will decide Uganda’s immediate future.
The best thing for Uganda would be for Museveni to be defeated and for him to peacefully step aside. I don’t say that because I think the opposition would be that much better. They certainly would not be as corrupt initially as Museveni’s group is currently. What his defeat and peaceful acquiescence would do is establish a precedent for democratic transfer of power in the country; something which is currently lacking. The absence of this history reveals itself in the actions of the people.
I have talked with very educated Ugandans who have not registered for this election because they don’t believe their votes are worthwhile given the history of ballot box rigging. Others say that while they back an opposition candidate, they probably will still vote for Museveni because they fear the violence and military action that might result if Museveni loses and tries to stay in power. These are thoughts that really just don’t enter the minds of most citizens of democratic societies. (I know I am ignoring some segments who believe they have been disenfranchised.)
Unfortunately, while I hold out hope for a precedent setting election, I fear the rigging or other shenanigans will be sufficient for Museveni to maintain a hold on power. If this happens, I am certain there will be angry demonstrations throughout Kampala which will result in protesters being killed. If the number of dead is only between 10-20, I would be surprised. In just the past week, the crowds of supporters for the main opposition candidate have been shot at by a member of the military (2 or 3 were killed because they blocked the road, not letting the car pass), run over by military vehicles (also because they were blocking the roads due to the vast number of individuals that were present), run over by a lorry which was subsequently burned by the crowd and finally, last night a large group was tear gassed and sprayed with water cannon to get them to disperse.
If things do not go smoothly, it could severely hurt Uganda in terms of foreign aid, investment, development, research, etc. It is disheartening to think of the potential and yet see the selfish and egotistical desires of a few to ruin so much for so many of the world’s poor.
The tension is mounting and the violence and injury has only been accumulating among the supporters of Besigye (the opposition). We are heading to Nairobi for a few days where we will keep tabs on the process. It is a good time to get a short vacation while probably being a prudent idea.
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Comments
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Date written: 2/22/2006
Author: Connie
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I'm watching, and praying. Please be safe.
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